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Saturday, May 16, 2015

How Long Will My Hard Drives Really Last?

How Long Will My Hard Drives Really Last?
Dear Lifehacker,
I know hard drives can fail, but how long do they really last? Will they last longer if I don’t use them as often?

Drives for Posterity

Dear Drives for Posterity,
These are good questions, and you’ve
asked a bunch of them! You’re essentially asking how long different
kinds of hard drives will last under regular or normal use, and then how
long they’ll last under no use at all (as in, stored in a box
somewhere.) Let’s go through each of them one by one.

Under Normal Use

How Long Will My Hard Drives Really Last?
Any hard drive in active use is essentially a ticking bomb. Let’s be honest: It’s not a matter of if a hard drive fails, it’s a matter of when,
and how lucky you’ll get postponing that as long as possible. If you’re
really lucky, it’ll be after you’ve upgraded to a new one. If you’re
unlucky, it’ll be in a matter of months or years, and when it does die,
we can only hope you’ve made sure to back up your computer before it happens.

As for the average life of the hard drive in your computer, well,
that depends mostly on whether it’s an HDD or an SSD. Here’s the basic
breakdown though, and some average life expectancy:

  • Hard Drives: Traditional hard drives, which
    you’ll usually find in desktop computers (and some cheaper laptops) will
    often fail sooner because they use moving parts. The average life of a
    hard drive depends on a lot of things, like the brand, type, size, and
    interface method, but you’re looking at about four years on average. Online backup service Backblaze studied the drives in their infrastructure
    and found about 80% of them survived for four years. Of course, that
    also means 20% didn’t and failed sooner, most of those in the third year
    of use. Similarly, the brand of drive you use makes a difference. Seagate, for example, failed much more frequently than Western Digital or Hitachi drives in Backblaze’s tests. You can check out the raw data on all 41,000 drives
    for more, but in short, keep your data backed up, watch for SMART
    alerts, and keep an eye on your hard drive’s warranty. Most are about
    two to three years, and while your drive may last much longer than that,
    be ready for failures after that point.
  • Solid State Drives:
    Solid state drives, which have become extremely popular in laptops and
    desktops for their faster speeds, are different. You may hear people say
    that you have to be careful with SSDs because they have a limited
    number of reads and writes. In reality, consumer SSDs actually last a really, really long time under normal use. TechReport’s famous SSD endurance test
    showed us that a lot of those fears are over-blown, and even consumer
    SSDs managed to survive writing and reading well over 700TB of data.
    These drives usually come with a three to five year warranty, and
    manufacturers assume you’ll write 20GB-40GB per day in data. That means
    to get to that 700TB, you’d have to do 40GB every day for 17,500 days,
    or just shy of 50 years. That doesn’t mean you should mistreat your
    drive, and it doesn’t mean SSDs won’t fail due to other issues, but if
    you’re worrying your SSD will die because you used it too much, don’t.
Of course, all of this is average data. Your experiences may differ,
and you may wind up with a great drive that lasts forever, or another
one that fails a few days out of the box. That’s why it’s important to
keep your systems backed up. Beyond that though, stick to trusted brands
with solid warranties that don’t make it a nightmare to RMA a drive
that dies before its prime.

If You Aren’t Using Your Hard Drive at All

How Long Will My Hard Drives Really Last?
The other side of the coin involves “cold storage.” If you write data
to a drive and then, let’s say, drop it in a safe deposit box or a time
capsule, how long would the data on it survive before it degrades?
Well, we touched on the question a bit in this guide to storing data for the long haul,
but if you’re talking about true cold storage—as in you don’t want to
access it for years, perhaps decades at a time, the numbers change a

Again, things are different depending on whether you’re talking about SSDs or traditional HDDs. Here’s what you need to know:

  • Hard Drives: If you’re planning to drop some
    data on a hard drive and toss it into a storage unit or a safe deposit
    box, you probably don’t need to worry about the data deteriorating on
    its own. On episode 11 of TekThing, Patrick Norton talked to PCPer’s Allyn Malventano,
    who said as long as your drive is in a climate controlled environment,
    the only issue to worry about is the oil around the ball bearings drying
    out. In short, spin them up every few years—which you should do anyway
    to make additional backups and switch storage methods (which we’ll get
    to a little later.) If your environment isn’t climate controlled,
    well—just make sure it’s climate controlled. A time capsule in the
    ground with a hard drive in it likely won’t survive to be dug up and
  • Solid State Drives: SSDs for archival
    purposes is a difficult thing to pin down. SSDs are still relatively new
    technology, especially compared to magnetic media (which most
    businesses still use for archival backups) so there aren’t many serious
    studies as to their long-term survivability in cold storage. We have an
    idea that, under power, SSDs can last a good long time, but even SSD
    technology is evolving (future consumer SSDs will likely be PCI, just
    for speed purposes, the way enterprise SSDs have been for a while) and
    everything could change again in a matter of years. Theoretically
    though, assuming a climate controlled environment the only thing you’d
    have to worry about is the slow degradation of data in the drive’s NAND
    cells, but that’s a process that takes decades, possibly longer.
Long story short, if you keep a hard drive offline and in a box—as
long as it’s someplace well maintained, you’ll have other problems to
worry about long before the eventual degradation of the data on the
drive. Conceivably you could keep either for decades, probably longer,
and then fire them up and they’ll work as good as they did the last time
they were powered down, and the data would be right there for you to

The More Important Factor: Interface Technology

How Long Will My Hard Drives Really Last?
All this talk about the mechanical or physical life of storage is
great, but it misses the biggest, most important point: The pace of
technology, and how quickly your drive’s connection interface or
platform will be obsolete. After all, it wasn’t too long ago that the
hard drive interface standard was IDE, then SATA, then SATA II and III.
For external media, long before we had USB 3 and Thunderbolt, we made do
with Parallel Port and Serial connections. While the drives buried
inside those old Parallel Port or IDE-based storage devices probably
still function, and still have their precious data on them, you need to
find equally old technology (or working converters and adapters) to
retrieve it.

This is a bigger issue, one that data archivists struggle with, and a
more pressing matter for anyone thinking about saving data for
posterity—or trying to hand down electronic information to future
generations. If you think you can slap some precious photos onto a 1TB
USB drive, put it in a safe deposit box at the bank, and will it to your
children with instructions to open it when you pass away, it’s a gamble
that (depending on how old you are, of course) there’ll be any USB
devices left by the time they get around to seeing what’s on it. Just
think: If someone handed you a ZIP disk today and told you there was
something important on it for you, how would you go about getting at
that data? What about a 5.25” floppy? Your best bet is to, instead of
setting and forgetting it, to diversify your storage methods, update data and drive formats every few years, and keep more than one type of backup whenever possible.

In any event, the physical life of your hard drive is one thing, but
the practical, useful life of it is something completely different.
Hopefully we’ve addressed both for you here though, and you can rest
assured knowing your drives will probably last you a while. That said,
make sure you back up your data!


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